Circle's IPO and the New Valuation Paradigm for Crypto Firms: A Deep Dive with Dragonfly Capital
The Earthquake in Crypto Valuations
When Circle’s stock surged 250% in two days post-IPO, even seasoned analysts like myself—who’ve built Python models tracking every crypto winter since 2018—had to adjust our spreadsheets. This wasn’t just another listing; it was a tectonic shift in how public markets value crypto-native businesses.
By the numbers:
- 15x price-to-sales ratio (compared to Coinbase’s modest 25x P/E)
- \(1.2 trillion annual transaction volume at just \)6B valuation
- Effectively makes USDC issuer a “digital dollar printing press”
The implications? As Robert Leshner noted during our conversation: “This redefines what’s possible for crypto companies going public.”
Stablecoin Wars: Regulation as Weapon
The genius (or madness) lies in timing. With:
- The Clarity Act vote looming
- Tether threatening US exit over reserve requirements
- JPMorgan sniffing around consortium stablecoins
Circle positioned itself as the compliant alternative—despite handing half its revenue to Coinbase for distribution (a fact that makes their multiples even more remarkable). My quant models suggest if Tether traded at similar multiples? It’d rival JPMorgan at $500B valuation.
The Saylor Effect: When Meme Meets Math
Michael Saylor’s playbook—using corporate debt to accumulate BTC—now has imitators across Solana, Ethereum ecosystems. But as Tarun Chitra observed at Circle’s surreal IPO party (where we were the only attendees not wearing suits), most lack Saylor’s macroeconomic conviction or balance sheet acrobatics.
The real lesson? In crypto capital markets today:
Innovation = (Regulatory Arbitrage) × (Narrative Control)
With banks entering via stablecoins and ICOs returning through platforms like Sonar (which raised $50M in seconds), we’re witnessing financial recombination at molecular levels. Whether this evolves into sustainable growth or 2021-style excess remains my team’s burning research question. Data visualization available in our premium report (£49)
ChainSage
Hot comment (18)
When Spreadsheets Go Supernova
Circle’s 250% IPO pop didn’t just break my Python models - it vaporized them! Who knew running a “digital dollar printing press” (with half your revenue going to Coinbase) could warrant 15x P/S ratios?
Regulatory Jiu-Jitsu Champion
The real genius? Launching right when Tether threatens to flee US regulations. Circle isn’t just selling stablecoins - they’re selling compliance theater tickets at Broadway prices.
Saylor’s Dangerous Legacy
Now every Solana degenerate thinks they’re Michael Saylor, but without the CFO or coherent macro thesis. Pro tip: corporate debt-fueled crypto shopping sprees work better when you actually have… you know… profits.
DCA responsibly, folks. Thoughts? 👇
Quando o IPO vale mais que o produto
A Circle fazendo seu IPO com valuation de $6B é tipo ver alguém vender água engarrafada no deserto… só que eles ainda estão cavando o poço! Com essa relação preço/venda de 15x, até meu vizinho do Bairro Alto está repensando seu negócio de pastéis de nata.
Estabilidade nunca foi tão instável
Enquanto isso, a Tether ameaçando sair dos EUA e o JPMorgan babando… parece aquela briga de família no domingo, mas com mais zeros à direita. Alguém avisa que regulamentação não é armamento?
[Comentem:] Quem vai ser o próximo? Binance lançando ações lastreadas em memes?
When Math Meets Meme Magic
Circle’s 250% IPO pop had even my Python models crying ‘404 Error’ - since when do stablecoin printers get tech valuation multiples?
Regulatory Arbitrage 101
Genius move launching amid Tether’s drama. At this rate, every CeFi CEO will start wearing ‘Compliant AF’ hoodies to meetings.
Saylor Would Be Proud
If Michael Saylor taught us anything, it’s that corporate debt + crypto = profit (until it isn’t). Now excuse me while I recalculate Tether’s hypothetical $500B market cap… after this margarita.
Drop your wildest crypto valuation takes below!
Circle virou a mesa do cassino financeiro!
Quando um IPO de stablecoin faz o JPMorgan chorar no banho (USDC valendo 15x vendas?!) e o Tether ameaçar mudar de país, você sabe que está em 2024.
Dados que doem nos bancos centrais:
- USDC = “máquina de imprimir dólares digitais”
- Se fosse Tether nesses múltiplos? Adeus Wall Street!
E pensar que ainda ontem riam das criptomoedas… Agora até meu tio conservador quer um pedaço desse bolo regulado!
PS: Alguém avisa o Saylor que encontrámos novo playground corporativo?
¿Compraste piso en la planta baja de las cripto?
Cuando Circle salió a bolsa y su valoración se disparó, hasta los analistas más veteranos tuvieron que resetear sus modelos. ¡15 veces el ratio precio-ventas! ¿Es esto una empresa o una máquina de imprimir dólares digitales?
Esto no es un IPO, es un meme con matemáticas
Con Tether amenazando con irse y JP Morgan husmeando, Circle se posicionó como “el buen chico”… aunque le da la mitad de sus ingresos a Coinbase. Si Tether cotizara así, ¡valdría como JP Morgan!
¿Quién necesita bancos cuando tienes stablecoins? Comenten abajo.
[Visualización de datos disponible por 49€ - o paga en USDC 😉]
Quando a matemática vira meme
A Circle fazendo seu IPO com valuation de \(6B enquanto processa \)1.2T em transações? Isso é tipo vender pastéis de Belém por 1 cêntimo e faturar em cima do açúcar que cai no chão.
Estabilidade instável
O mais engraçado é ver o USDC se vendendo como ‘a opção segura’ enquanto dá metade da receita para a Coinbase. Aposto que até o Vasco da Gama ficaria tonto com essa navegação financeira!
(E olha que ele lidou com tempestades reais)
Alguém aqui já investiu em stablecoin ou tá só na espectativa? #criptomoedas #humorfinanceiro
When Math Becomes Performance Art
Circle’s IPO isn’t just finance - it’s avant-garde theater where valuation metrics do backflips! A stablecoin issuer trading at 15x sales? That’s like paying Michelin-star prices for a dollar menu burger.
The Real MVP: That Python modeler who had to CTRL+ALT+DEL their spreadsheets when USDC became the Fed’s quirky younger sibling.
Memo to Tether: Your move. Though at these multiples, you might need to print another $500B just to keep up. Insert mind-blown emoji
Drop your hottest take: Sustainable growth or digital carnival about to fold? 🎪 #StablecoinShenanigans
¡La impresora de dólares digitales se pone en marcha!
Cuando Circle cotiza a 15 veces sus ventas, hasta mi abuela quiere comprar USDC (y eso que solo usa pesetas virtuales). ¿Regulación como arma? Más bien como coartada para volverse demasiado grande para caer.
El dato cachondo: Si Tether tuviera los mismos múltiplos… ¡sería más grande que el PIB de España! 🤑 #DeFiES
Y tú, ¿te subes al tren o esperas el próximo rug pull? 👀
